The October 2025 Notices of Liability were calculated on flat base fees. The 2026–27 producer-fee table has not yet been confirmed in the official sources checked. This desk turns that uncertainty into a disciplined data and forecasting plan your finance team and board can use.
Estimate my exposure — free, 60 secondsIndependent forecast desk: no packaging to sell, no compliance-scheme membership to recruit, and no software subscription behind the calculator. The paid output is the forecast itself.
Tonnes per material, to the nearest whole tonne. Rough figures are fine — this is a triage, not a return.
DRS exclusion note: drinks containers expected to fall within the UK Deposit Return Scheme from the 2027 launch should not be included in this disposal-fee triage where they leave the EPR disposal-fee scope.
Your estimate will appear here, set out like the invoice you will actually receive.
A two-page written review within 48 hours of receiving your figures, credited in full against the full Forecast if commissioned within 30 days.
The sample is a clearly labelled worked example. It shows the structure of the paid forecast: executive summary, modulation exposure, cash-flow phasing, and the first decisions to take when the confirmed producer-fee table is published.
Illustrative food business group, not a client result.
Leave an email to unlock the sample and the same breakdown from the calculator. One capture, two payoffs: your number and the shape of the paid analysis.
Submitting this form uses the existing lead endpoint and does not change the database schema.
£84k → £37k
A drinks-producer scenario originally modelled at about £84k can fall materially once exports, reusable/B2B packaging and DRS-scope units are separated correctly. This is an illustrative worked example only: results vary and no saving is promised before your data is reviewed.
You deal directly with the analyst who builds the forecast. The working style is written-first: no junior handoff and no pressure conversation. If you would find a short call helpful, you can request one.
Delivered within 48 hours of receiving your figures
Up to ~50 SKUs, single site, remote
50+ SKUs, multi-channel/import, 2+ sites, site visit included where required
Final tier confirmed in a short written triage (included in your Snapshot) before any work or payment begins. Site visits scoped in writing first. Credited against your Forecast when commissioned within 30 days.
Delivered within 7 working days of receiving your data
Best after a Snapshot, Discovery project or full Forecast
Send the minimum scoping details. The analyst confirms Standard or Extended in writing before payment or work begins.
Ledger management is scoped from your current EPR data position, then billed quarterly by subscription or invoice.
The desk remains written-first. If you would find a call helpful, send the facts first; the analyst reviews the position, prepares the discussion, then uses the 15-minute slot to answer the real question instead of gathering basics.
No blind sales call. No payment is taken for scoped work until the written scope or quote is confirmed.
Since January 2023 this desk has followed every DEFRA announcement, PackUK fee publication and modulation consultation. The forecasting model is rebuilt against each official revision — so your numbers reflect the scheme as it is, not as it was reported last year.
The work is economic analysis: cost incidence, scenario modelling, cash-flow phasing and price pass-through. It is deliberately independent — this desk sells no compliance-scheme membership, no packaging, and no waste services. The only product is clarity.
Everything is handled in writing: you send data, you receive a forecast. A short call is available on request.
I model EPR the way a finance team actually needs it: as cost, cash flow and decisions, not compliance jargon. That focus comes from a long career in cost analysis applied specifically to food and trade.
No. Compliance schemes register you and submit your data. This desk does the piece they don't: forecasting what the liability does to your cash flow and budget, independently of anyone selling you membership.
No. Rough tonnages, supplier invoices, screenshots and spreadsheets are all workable. Part of the engagement is organising what you have into figures you can defend.
No. This is independent economic forecasting and cost analysis. The output is designed to hand to your finance adviser and board, and works alongside whatever compliance scheme you use.
You may only have reporting duties for now — but the Snapshot will tell you how close you are to the threshold and what crossing it would cost, so the liability never arrives as a surprise.
Everything is handled in writing. Send a message and you will receive a written reply, usually within one working day. A short call is available on request.
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