UK Packaging EPR · Modulated fees from April 2026

Your first modulated EPR invoice lands in H2 2026. Do you know the number?

The October 2025 Notices of Liability were calculated on flat base fees. From the 2026–27 year, your fees move with the recyclability of every material you place on the market. This desk turns that uncertainty into a forecast your accountant and board can use.

Estimate my exposure — free, 60 seconds
£423 / tonne2025–26 base fee on plastic packaging (GOV.UK confirmed)
+20% / −9%Red-rated surcharge vs green-rated discount from Year 2
H2 2026First invoices reflecting modulation expected to arrive

Pro-forma Exposure Estimate

REF: PEPR/EST/ · DISPOSAL FEES ONLY

Annual household packaging placed on market

Tonnes per material, to the nearest whole tonne. Rough figures are fine — this is a triage, not a return.

Your estimate will appear here, set out like the invoice you will actually receive.

Estimates use PackUK's confirmed 2025-26 base fees (GOV.UK, June 2025) and PackUK's latest illustrative Year-2 modulated fee table (updated December 2025). Excludes PRN/PERN costs, regulator registration and compliance-scheme charges. This is an indicative economic estimate, not a statutory calculation, invoice prediction, or accountancy advice.
Why not just use the free calculators?

A free calculator gives you a number. This desk tells you what the number does to your business.

Free scheme calculators

  • Tonnage in, single per-tonne figure out
  • No modulation stress-testing against red/amber/green ratings
  • No cash-flow phasing across the invoice instalments
  • No budget or board-pack output
  • Built to recruit you into a compliance scheme

The Liability Desk forecast

  • Built from your actual invoice and tonnage data
  • Three-scenario modulation stress-test per material
  • Quarterly cash-flow phasing you can drop into your budget
  • Material-switch savings analysis (e.g. plastic → fibre)
  • Independent — no scheme membership to sell you
Engagements

Two ways to get the number — and what to do about it

Tier 1 · Desk review

EPR Exposure Snapshot

£295
  • 2-page written exposure review in 48 hours
  • Your estimated 2025–26 liability, checked and corrected
  • Material-by-material modulation risk flags
  • The three figures your budget must hold for 2026–27
  • Credited in full against a full forecast within 30 days
Commission the Snapshot — £295

Delivered within 48 hours of receiving your figures

Tier 2 · Full engagement

Statutory Liability Forecast

£1,250 fixed fee
  • 18-page forecast built from your invoice and tonnage data
  • Modulation stress-test: red / amber / green scenarios per material
  • Quarterly cash-flow phasing aligned to PackUK instalments
  • Material-switch and lightweighting savings analysis
  • Output formatted for your accountant, FD and board pack
  • 30 minutes of written Q&A after delivery
Commission the Forecast — £1,250

Delivered within 7 working days of receiving your data

Method & analyst

Tracked from the first DEFRA consultation, modelled like an economist

Since January 2023 this desk has followed every DEFRA announcement, PackUK fee publication and modulation consultation. The forecasting model is rebuilt against each official revision — so your numbers reflect the scheme as it is, not as it was reported last year.

The work is economic analysis: cost incidence, scenario modelling, cash-flow phasing and price pass-through. It is deliberately independent — this desk sells no compliance-scheme membership, no packaging, and no waste services. The only product is clarity.

Everything is handled in writing: you send data, you receive a forecast. No sales calls unless you ask for one.

Godfred Frimpong, MSc
Food & Trade Economist
  • MSc Food Economics & Marketing, University of Reading
  • 30+ years in financial management and cost analysis
  • Specialist in statutory cost modelling for food businesses
  • DEFRA / PackUK publications tracked since January 2023
Questions

Asked before commissioning

Is this a compliance scheme?

No. Compliance schemes register you and submit your data. This desk does the piece they don't: forecasting what the liability does to your cash flow and budget, independently of anyone selling you membership.

My data is messy. Is that a problem?

No. Rough tonnages, supplier invoices, screenshots and spreadsheets are all workable. Part of the engagement is organising what you have into figures you can defend.

Do you provide accountancy or tax services?

No. This is independent economic forecasting and cost analysis. The output is designed to hand to your accountant and board, and works alongside whatever compliance scheme you use.

What if I'm under the £2m / 50-tonne threshold?

You may only have reporting duties for now — but the Snapshot will tell you how close you are to the threshold and what crossing it would cost, so the liability never arrives as a surprise.

Prefer to start with a question?

Everything is handled in writing. Send a message and you will receive a written reply, usually within one working day.

Email the desk    WhatsApp (written)