Worked example / illustrative sample

Statutory Liability Forecast

Prepared by The Food Economist for an illustrative UK food business group. This is not a client result and must not be read as statutory, legal, tax or regulated financial advice.

Public identity: The Food Economist - Food & Trade Economist.

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This sample exists to show the structure of the paid forecast before purchase. Real client reports should only be published when anonymised and approved in writing.

1. Executive Summary

2025-26 base liabilityGBP 184k

Year-2 green scenarioGBP 176k

Year-2 red scenarioGBP 229k

The worked example shows a business with moderate paper/card exposure and material plastic exposure. The immediate question is not only the total liability, but whether procurement and packaging decisions can move the Year-2 position away from red-rated outcomes before the first modulated invoice lands.

2. Exposure Bridge

Base
184k

Red
229k

Green
176k

Actions
158k

The bridge separates the current base-fee position from the Year-2 modulation range and the potential effect of priority actions. The paid forecast uses the client's own tonnage, packaging specifications and supplier data.

3. Material Risk Map

Material	Tonnes	Base fee	Risk	Action
Plastic trays and film	210	GBP 88,830	High	Confirm RAM rating, lightweight film, test fibre substitution where shelf-life allows.
Paper and card	260	GBP 50,960	Lower	Check coatings and composite elements before treating as low risk.
Aluminium	42	GBP 11,172	Lower	Exclude DRS-scope drinks containers where applicable.
Fibre-based composite	68	GBP 31,348	High	Isolate composite lines and test whether design changes improve recyclability evidence.

4. First Decisions

Decision	Why it matters	Indicative annual effect
Validate plastic RAM evidence	Prevents conservative red-rating where supplier evidence supports amber/green.	GBP 18k-32k
Separate DRS-scope units	Avoids modelling disposal fees on containers expected to leave scope from 2027.	GBP 6k-14k
Budget H2 2026 cash timing	Turns annual exposure into an invoice and working-capital forecast.	Cash-flow timing, not savings

5. What The Paid Forecast Adds

The paid forecast replaces this illustrative data with your own invoice, packaging and tonnage data. It produces a finance-grade output for leadership, budget owners and advisers: exposure, modulation sensitivity, invoice phasing and the first actions ranked by cash effect.